As one of those unfortunate people who is ‘interested in’ (i.e. obsessed by) politics, I got asked the other day about the new Independent Group: who are they and what do they want? The resignation of Ian Austin MP has now thrown a fascinating new light on this. So here is an attempt to outline the motivations and purposes of the new Independent Group.
Who are they?
The Independent Group are 11 members of parliament who are not members of any political party, but who sit as a group unlike regular independent MPs. They were previously members of the Labour and Conservative parties but quit because they felt they couldn’t support the aims of those parties and other factors such as the behaviour of members of those parties or because they felt they were threatened with impending deselection. As a result of quitting, these MPs now sit apart from any party or parties as part of what is currently an informal grouping.
What are their aims?
Stop Brexit
One of the main reasons that the TIG was formed is to try to prevent Brexit by holding a second referendum to overturn the first. The bullying and antisemitism so prevalent in the Labour party is undoubtedly a motivating factor behind the ex-Labour MPs leaving, but the defining feature of TIG is to overturn Brexit. This is what defines the formal/informal TIG grouping from other independent MPs such as Frank Field and Ian Austin who support Brexit. This is their defining long-term aim.
Short term aims
However, I believe that their main long-term aim is currently in conflict with their overriding short-term aim: stop a no-deal Brexit.
Support the deal?
At the moment the only way to stop a no deal Brexit is to support the current deal. Many people expect the current Brexit deal to come back to Parliament before long with some slight amendments or cosmetic changes. Last time, it suffered the worst parliamentary defeat in history. Now the question is whether MPs will feel the pressure of time. Given that the deal was defeated by 230 votes, it is unlikely that 11 MPs to make much difference. However, the whipping operations of the other parties might come under new pressures, especially with other Tory MPs threatening to rebel or quit. The new group may open the door to more rebellions or new alliances.
Stop Corbyn becoming PM
Where it gets really interesting is where it’s really close – a vote of no confidence in the government. In January the current government won a vote of confidence by a margin of 19. There have been rumours that the current Brexit deal is unacceptable to the DUP. Before TIG formed those 10 DUP votes would decide the outcome of the vote of no confidence in the government. Now TIG has 11. This means that the deal could get passed, the DUP break their confidence and supply arrangement and the government not fall. This is a potentially a huge development as the government may be able to pass a deal that is acceptable (or not unacceptable) to large numbers of MPs but not including the DUP.
Realign politics or re-join their parties?
Now here’s an interesting question. The MPs in TIG have talked about trying to “change politics”. That is both an electoral ambition and a wider one. They talk about wanting to do politics differently, how their shared values and ambitions are no longer welcome in the parties which they used to be part of. That certainly covers a shared centrism and, crucially, absolute support for a second referendum to overturn the 2016 result. Where they will run into trouble is if and when they attempt to transition to a full political party. Can Anna Soubry’s support for austerity and a smaller state coexist peacefully with the former Labour MP’s social democracy? It is tough to say. Maybe they can. If so, I would imagine they will seek to emulate Macron’s En Marche and win with a new party of the centre. Another possible template is the Liberal Party of Canada under Trudeau. At the 2015 election the Liberal Party went from 36 seats and 3rd place to 184 and 1st, thus entering government. It may be harder for The Independent Group to actually win an election, but they have legitimate hopes of holding some balance of power, or even entering a coalition.
Return to your parties and prepare for government?
It is just possible TIG could have the greatest influence by losing their MPs. Theresa May has committed herself to standing down as Conservative leader before the next election. The rules of a Conservative Party leadership contest mean that Tory MPs will decide on two candidates to go to the membership. The centrist, pro-EU MPs leaving the parliamentary party means the electorate who decide those two has become more pro-Brexit. It means the way candidates pitch themselves will have to change and the votes of those who decide who gets through change. It means that Boris Johnson or another who the TIG-gers find unacceptable will be more likely to become Prime Minister. Maybe they are prepared for that to happen because they believe it will be to their benefit over the longer term, highlighting the extremism of the post-Brexit Tory Party. Their ex-Labour colleagues find Corbyn as PM unacceptable but have little power to influence a party leadership contest given the low threshold of support needed to make a ballot of the membership. But if the ex-Tories believe Johnson to be unacceptable and bad for the country, their greater influence may come from re-joining the party.
We will see.
Martin Rogers @MNBRogers is a policy adviser at the British Academy.