On the day Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister I am reflecting on the topic of our second NoMansland podcast: what kind of a leader will Boris Johnson be for moderate voters?
This question on the face of it will seem silly to many - such a bogey man for hard Remainers and the left he has become. As I write, the hashtag #notmyprimeminister is trending on Twitter, an ode to #notmypresident which followed Trump’s election.
But Boris’s true ideological leanings are quite hard to pin down. He was portrayed as a ‘liberal conservative' Mayor of London, yet has said things that are offensive or racist (though some say these gaffs do not reflect his attitudes). He was the arch Brexiter, but famously on the fence until the last minute in the lead up to the Referendum Campaign.
Undoubtedly, he did tack right in the Conservative leadership campaign - notably on tax, but more worryingly on no-deal Brexit. But as my colleague Akash Paun pointed out in the aforementioned podcast. There is an argument that Boris, with his credentials as a Brexiter, is the only person with the credibility to strike a compromise that could see the withdrawal agreement go through Parliament, and avoid no-deal. Something the Remainer Theresa May could not do.
If Boris is genuinely as flaky and flexible as he has seemed, are we about to witness a contest in side the new Cabinet and wider Conservative Party to shape his agenda? A battle for Boris's soul?
Perhaps not. The spate of resignations ahead of Boris taking office could be seen as many jumping before they were pushed. But it is striking that Philip Hammond and Co didn’t event wait to see what, if anything they were offered. It is early days but this seems to suggest that many conservative MPs may oppose, rather than try to shape the new administration.
Key early appointments also suggest a hard Brexit and right wing edge to the new team. Priti Patel, know for socially conservative views, is the new Home Secretary. Dominic Cumming of Vote Leave is a key Number 10 adviser. Most alarming must be the hardline Brexiteer Dominic Raab as Foreign Secretary (Iran will be in his in tray).
Predicting how this plays out over the next few weeks and months is a mugs game. So we will wait and see, but the early signs are that the battle may already be lost.
