As has become painfully clear over the preceding weeks few people see much good in Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Yet if little else it and the ever increasing possibility of no deal do achieve one thing - they give Britain back control of its immigration policy on EU migrants. Shortly before Christmas at long last we finally got to see the Government’s interpretation of what this means in practice, with the release of its plans for ‘The UK’s future skills-based immigration system’. The merits of this plan will be debated in detail over the coming weeks. However on this issue the scrutiny of policy makers and business people is, perhaps uniquely, less important than that of the public at large; so driven is the immigration debate by public opinion. So the question of whether this plan can sate the public’s anxiety on EU migration is front and centre.
May’s plan itself is the compromise it probably was always going to be. Ending Free Movement after the Implementation Period, from which point skilled EU migrants will need a work sponsor and a £30k minimum salary, but providing no cap on the numbers of skilled workers and allowing a transitional route for non-skilled migrants to work for up to a year. A measure that nods to sectors like agriculture that depend on EU migration. So how can we judge whether this plan will address public concerns? To make an assessment its important to understand a bit better how the country thinks about immigration, and to avoid the tendency too common in ‘elite’ circles to categorise these concerns on-mass as only ignorant or racist.
The first thing to say about public attitudes to migration is that concerns are widespread. Even more so than the 52% that voted Leave in 2016. According to Iposs MORI 60% want immigration to come down, only 7% want it to increase. So many Remainers will have voted the way they did despite not wanting high EU migration. Second and more importantly, to judge how the public might view immigration post Brexit we need to understand the nature of their concerns. The think tank British Future specialises in such questions. To simplify they split the public into three groups. Around a quarter are positive about migration, often they are young and educated. Another quarter are termed ‘rejectionists’, strongly opposed to migration. Generally older white men, as per our stereotypes. But the most striking thing is that the remaining half are not against or for migration in any firm ideological way, but have practical concerns about it. They are the ‘balancers’, seeing both good and bad in immigration. Their concerns are about whether the NHS can cope, whether there are enough social houses, whether our border controls are up to scratch and so on. Perhaps more than anything else they have very little confidence that government can or wants to do anything about migration.
Understanding these groups has some implications for how May’s Brexit plan will be received. The quarter who are hard line rejectionists won’t be sated by May’s or any other realistic plan. Many will likely be angered by the transitional route for low skilled workers or the lack of a cap on skilled ones. Given these people are quite likely to be Conservatives who might move back to UKIP (or Farage's new movement) that could be a worry for May or her successor. More positive news for the plan comes from the ‘balancers’. The idea that Freedom of Movement will end and that government will require European migrants to have a minimum salary should speak to their fears on over pressured public services and housing. These people are likely to see the sense of being liberal on skilled migration and on a transition period for short term workers. I imagine they will be the people May is looking to convince. Her plan seems reasonably well placed to do so.
All this could be important for the next general election or for a second referendum should that come to pass. But in the long term a note of caution is needed. While migration does have an impact on the things the majority of people care about - housing, public services and so on - most experts will tell you it is only a small factor with much bigger more systemic forces at play. So unless the larger underlying causes of these concerns are dealt with, don’t be surprised if public anxiety on immigration is not sated for long.